The unemployment rate is often the most important factor when considering if the economy will go into a recession. It has a perfect forecasting record going back to 1948 and we are close to meeting a key metric of a coming recession. The most recent jobs report by The Labor Department showed a .2% or 20 basis point increase in the unemployment rate and this could be very significant. When the unemployment rate increases .5% or 50 basis points from its bottom you are in a recession.
The reason for this relationship is that a rapid increase in the unemployment rate can indicate a significant deterioration in the labor market and the overall economy. When businesses are forced to lay off workers or reduce their hours, it can lead to a decline in consumer spending, as those workers have less disposable income to spend. This decline in consumer spending can further reduce economic activity, leading to a downward spiral of economic contraction.
This relationship between the unemployment rate and a recession has been observed in past economic cycles, going back to at least 1948. For example, in the recession of the early 1980s, the unemployment rate rose from a low of 5.7% in 1979 to a peak of 10.8% in 1982, an increase of over 5%. Similarly, during the Great Recession of 2007-2009, the unemployment rate rose from a low of 4.4% in 2006 to a peak of 10.0% in 2009, an increase of over 5.5%.
In summary, the relationship between the unemployment rate and a recession is based on historical observations and is driven by the impact of unemployment on consumer spending and economic activity. When the unemployment rate increases rapidly, it can be a warning sign of an impending recession, but other economic factors also need to be considered in making such predictions.
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Matt Maciel
